Chance-Informed Web Apps Through AI and Stochastic Data

Capacity Planning in the Face of Uncertain Demand

In this Flaw of Averages Classic, the average profit is way less than the profit of the average demand.

Investment Return Calculator

In the late 1980s Wall Street financial firms performed on the fly risk/return analysis based on huge databases of simulated asset values. The Open SIPMath 3.0 Standard reduces the storage requirements by orders of magnitude.

Clinical Trial Chance-Informed Dashboard

In the high stakes pharma industry, clinical trials may account for over half of development cost. This dashboard is based on 200 weeks representing 400,000 elements of stochastic data.

Construction Cost Estimation

You have just estimated the cost of a project to be $2 million. Given the competition you bid $2,100,000. Do you have a clue of your chance of losing money? Would you like one? This app’s for you.

Capacity Planning in the Face of Uncertain Demand

The Chance Economy Dividend

ChancePlan Unlocks Value in the Face of Uncertainty

Each of the applications of SIP Libraries below and many more like them would have been facilitated by ChancePlan.AI had it existed at the time.

Portfolios

Finding Optimal Tradeoffs between Expected Return and the Chance of Loss by accounting for the interrelationships between assets.
  Shell Portfolios of Exploration Projects
Kaiser Realized $Millions Through Integrating Risk Management and Investments.

This is the value unlocked by explicitly accounting for uncertainty. It is validated by two Nobel Prize–winning pillars of modern finance: Portfolios and Options. The Open SIPmath™ Standard for conveying uncertainty extends these principles to virtually any industry facing uncertainty.

Options 

Determining fair Options Prices through correct Expected Values of Nonlinear Payoffs. Similar strategies for Profiting from Uncertainty apply in many settings.