Systems Created with ChancePlan Cure the Flaw of Averages by Embracing Uncertainty It - Not Denying It
Example of the Flaw of Averages:
• A project consists of 10 parallel tasks, each with an average duration of 6 weeks.
• Assuming average durations, the project will finish in 6 weeks.
• But all 10 tasks finishing within 6 weeks is like flipping 10 heads in a row—about 1 chance in 1,000.
(Not close enough, even for government work)
The Flaw of Averages – Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Dr. Sam Savage describes a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are replaced by averages. This problem’s Poster Child is a statistician who drowns in a river that is on average 3 ft. deep.
Chancification – How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, Dr. Sam Savage outlines the concepts underlying ChancePlan.AI.
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