Systems Created with ChancePlan Cure the Flaw of Averages by Embracing Uncertainty It - Not Denying It
Example of the Flaw of Averages
•We are releasing software, which requires four parallel test, each with an average duration of 6 weeks.
•Assuming average durations, the project will finish in 6 weeks.
•But all tasks finishing within 6 weeks is like flipping four heads in a row—about a 6% chance.
(Not close enough, even for government work)
Open the app on the right with the QR Code or by clicking on it, and find the deadline that gives you a 90% chance of being on time.
The Flaw of Averages – Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Dr. Sam Savage describes a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are replaced by averages. This problem’s Poster Child is a statistician who drowns in a river that is on average 3 ft. deep.
Chancification – How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, Dr. Sam Savage outlines the concepts underlying ChancePlan.AI.
Visit Flaw Of Averages to learn more