The Flaw of Averages Trifecta
Systems Created with ChancePlan Cure the Flaw of Averages by Embracing Uncertainty It - Not Denying It
The Flaw of Averages states that Plans Based on Average Assumptions are Wrong on Average. It explains why so many things are Behind Schedule, Beyond Budget, and Below Projection. These are described in the Flaw of Averages Trifecta videos below, approx. 1 minute each.
The Flaw of Averages States that Plans Based on Average Assumptions are Wrong on Average.
Example of the Flaw of Averages
•We are releasing software, which requires four parallel test, each with an average duration of 6 weeks.
•Assuming average durations, the project will finish in 6 weeks.
•But all tasks finishing within 6 weeks is like flipping four heads in a row—about a 6% chance.
(Not close enough, even for government work)
Open the app on the right with the QR Code or by clicking on it, and find the deadline that gives you a 90% chance of being on time.
It Explains why everything is…
Behind Schedule
Beyond Budget
Below Projection
The Flaw of Averages – Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Dr. Sam Savage describes a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are replaced by averages. This problem’s Poster Child is a statistician who drowns in a river that is on average 3 ft. deep.
Chancification – How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, Dr. Sam Savage outlines the concepts underlying ChancePlan.AI.
Visit Flaw Of Averages to learn more